Tuesday, April 21, 2009

What does prediction market mean for India

Prediction markets are the most advanced form of Markets in the world. It is an online platform for users to trade on chances of future events.

It is used to predict future events and help in forecasting problems. It started in early 2000's, when people started talking about wisdom of crowds.

It was soon proven that prediction market is the most accurate form of forecasting intrument. In 2004 and 2008 US presidential elections, prediction markets predicted the exact percentage of votes for president. It was a huge success.

The first real money prediction market - indiaPX comes to india very soon. This prediction market will cater to four categories: Politics, Business, Sports and Movies.

The aim of such prediction market is to use the wisdom of crowds to solve nation's forthcoming problems by using the trading data to arrive at statistically significant results. I think, it is a big step towards solving the forecasting problem in India.

It not only tells us about the possiblity of future events but also prepares us for those events before hand.

Let's make our democracy functional by using the prediction market for India.